The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday that it expects the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season to be below normal, largely attributing its forecast to a potentially strong El Niño pattern.
Forecasters say there is a 55% probability the 2026 season will be below normal, a 35% chance it will be near normal, and a 10% chance it will be above normal. The center stressed that it takes only one hurricane to cause catastrophic damage and noted that Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall during below-average seasons.
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The agency predicts 8 to 14 named storms in 2026, with 3 to 6 becoming hurricanes and 1 to 3 reaching Category 3 strength or higher. An average season has 14 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Although the 2025 season had only 13 named storms and five hurricanes, it was notable for producing three Category 5 hurricanes, including Hurricane Melissa, which devastated Jamaica and caused dozens of fatalities.
El Niño is part of a climate cycle in which waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average. Sea surface temperatures in the region where El Niño develops are expected to be 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal.
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Historically, El Niño brings wetter conditions to the southern United States and drier weather to the North. It also tends to produce milder winters across much of the country and is known for strengthening upper-level winds in the Atlantic, making it harder for hurricanes to form.
